Here we are, just one day away from UFC on Fox 4. I already broke down the co-main event (which should have been the main event) between Machida and Bader here: http://cinemakingdom.com/?p=182
Shogun Rua
Shogun is without a doubt one of the greatest LHWs of all time. He is also very inconsistent lately. Going only 4-4 in his last 8, he sometimes shows up looking like a killer who can outstrike anyone and at other times comes in out of shape, losing to guys he is far superior to. Granted, most of those losses were after knee surgeries (he has blown out his ACL 3 times) where he had a long time off. With all of his knee problems he is lucky to be fighting at all.
Since the knee problems Shogun has still shown off his fantastic striking skills a few times but it seems like whenever he has to go to the ground he tends to gas out fairly quickly. I am guessing he probably can’t roll as well as he used to due to the injuries. He also tends to fight down to his opponents level. When he fights someone great like Machida (Shogun is still the only guy to ever outstrike Machida) he comes in with a great game plan and fights smart. When he fights someone like Mark Coleman or Forrest Griffin he comes in and just fights sloppy and slugs it out. He recently replaced his manager as well so who knows how he will show up. If Shogun comes in top form expect this to be a short night, if he comes out sloppy, who knows.
Brandon Vera
What can I say about Brandon Vera? He came on the scene and started destroying heavyweights in the UFC (his rise was very much like Jon Jones’ actually), including Frank Mir (which only took him 1 minute). Then he had a contract dispute and had a long time off and has never been the same since he came back. I don’t know what changed during that time off, but that killer he once was died somewhere along the way. Vera then dropped to 205lbs.
Being a smaller heavyweight, if was argued he would be better at 205lbs but he has never looked spectacular there. Some guys just perform worse when they cut weight, I think Vera is better at HW. Going 4-3 (1 NC) at light heavyweight since his debut in 2008, he has never beat anyone of note really. The thing is, he is a skilled stand up fighter and he has some pretty good takedowns as well. He just never seems to be able to put it all together anymore.
Final Thoughts
Shogun should win this fight but if he shows up sloppy and out of shape and Vera shows up like he used to we could see an upset. I think Vera should try to mix things up and go for some takedowns to keep Shogun guessing and try to tire him out. If Shogun shows up as the killer he most of the time, I think he puts Vera away sometime in the first 2 rounds. Shogun is capable of taking people down as well but in this case I don’t think he has to in order to win but mixing in some takedowns mixed with his brutal Ground & Pound wouldn’t be such a bad idea.
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