Alright guys, the UFC on Fox 4 is coming up this weekend. Oddly enough, this card is way better than the last UFC PPV event, and it's free! In the co-main event we have Lyoto Machida vs Ryan Bader.
Lyoto Machida
Lyoto Machida is coming in off of a loss against champ Jon Jones (which he looked fantastic in until the end) and hasn't fought in 8 months. His inactivity isn't Machida's fault as he had been trying to get a big name fight, it's just everyone else was injured or tied up with another opponent already. Machida is going through the toughest time of his career currently, going only 1-3 in his last 4, but all of his losses were to top 5 opponents and some of the greatest LHWs of all time.
It will be interesting to see how Machida performs after such a long layoff. He is also getting older, turning 34 this past may. Is Machida past his prime or has he just made a some mistakes in his last few fights that cost him? We shall see. I personally think he is still one of the best LHWs in the division and he tends to be a nightmare match up for wrestlers and brawlers.
Ryan Bader
Going 2-2 in his last 4, Bader is coming in off a win against Rampage Jackson. This sounds pretty good as Rampage is one of the best LHWs ever, but he also came in with an injury and way over weight for the first time in his career. It was pretty obviously this win was more about Rampage being out of shape than Bader being the superior fighter so it's hard to take much from it. Bader is also the only win on Tito's record in the last 6 years (since Tito beat up Ken Shamrock a couple of times back in 06).
I've never been very impressed with Ryan Bader. He is basically the typical MMA fighter these days, a big strong wrestler who wings right hands. I'm not saying he is a terrible fighter, I just don't think he is that exceptional (for a top 10 LHW). All he brings to the table is a double leg takedown (which is useless against southpaw Machida), lay & pray, and a big right hand. I think he is sort of a poor man's Rashad Evans and we all saw how that fight against Machida turned out.
Final Thoughts
I think Machida (unless he just shows up totally off of his game or gets some fluke injury) is just a nightmare match up for Ryan Bader. How the fight plays out just depends on if Machida is conservative in this fight or attempts to make a statement. I think he can put Bader away quickly if he gets in there (like against Rampage in the 3rd round) but he may be content to avoid any risks and fight Bader similar to how he fought Tito.
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