UFC on Fox 4: Shogun Rua vs Brandon Vera

Here we are, just one day away from UFC on Fox 4.  I already broke down the co-main event (which should have been the main event) between Machida and Bader here:  http://cinemakingdom.com/?p=182

Shogun Rua

Shogun is without a doubt one of the greatest LHWs of all time.  He is also very inconsistent lately.  Going only 4-4 in his last 8, he sometimes shows up looking like a killer who can outstrike anyone and at other times comes in out of shape, losing to guys he is far superior to.  Granted, most of those losses were after knee surgeries (he has blown out his ACL 3 times) where he had a long time off.  With all of his knee problems he is lucky to be fighting at all.

Since the knee problems Shogun has still shown off his fantastic striking skills a few times but it seems like whenever he has to go to the ground he tends to gas out fairly quickly.  I am guessing he probably can’t roll as well as he used to due to the injuries.  He also tends to fight down to his opponents level.  When he fights someone great like Machida (Shogun is still the only guy to ever outstrike Machida) he comes in with a great game plan and fights smart.  When he fights someone like Mark Coleman or Forrest Griffin he comes in and just fights sloppy and slugs it out.  He recently replaced his manager as well so who knows how he will show up.  If Shogun comes in top form expect this to be a short night, if he comes out sloppy, who knows.

Brandon Vera
What can I say about Brandon Vera?  He came on the scene and started destroying heavyweights in the UFC (his rise was very much like Jon Jones’ actually), including Frank Mir (which only took him 1 minute).  Then he had a contract dispute and had a long time off and has never been the same since he came back.  I don’t know what changed during that time off, but that killer he once was died somewhere along the way.  Vera then dropped to 205lbs.

Being a smaller heavyweight, if was argued he would be better at 205lbs but he has never looked spectacular there.  Some guys just perform worse when they cut weight, I think Vera is better at HW.  Going 4-3 (1 NC) at light heavyweight since his debut in 2008, he has never beat anyone of note really.  The thing is, he is a skilled stand up fighter and he has some pretty good takedowns as well.  He just never seems to be able to put it all together anymore.

Final Thoughts

Shogun should win this fight but if he shows up sloppy and out of shape and Vera shows up like he used to we could see an upset.  I think Vera should try to mix things up and go for some takedowns to keep Shogun guessing and try to tire him out.  If Shogun shows up as the killer he most of the time, I think he puts Vera away sometime in the first 2 rounds.  Shogun is capable of taking people down as well but in this case I don’t think he has to in order to win but mixing in some takedowns mixed with his brutal Ground & Pound wouldn’t be such a bad idea.

UFC on Fox 4: Lyoto Machida vs Ryan Bader

Alright guys, the UFC on Fox 4 is coming up this weekend.  Oddly enough, this card is way better than the last UFC PPV event, and it's free!  In the co-main event we have Lyoto Machida vs Ryan Bader.

Lyoto Machida

Lyoto Machida is coming in off of a loss against champ Jon Jones (which he looked fantastic in until the end) and hasn't fought in 8 months.  His inactivity isn't Machida's fault as he had been trying to get a big name fight, it's just everyone else was injured or tied up with another opponent already.  Machida is going through the toughest time of his career currently, going only 1-3 in his last 4, but all of his losses were to top 5 opponents and some of the greatest LHWs of all time.

It will be interesting to see how Machida performs after such a long layoff.  He is also getting older, turning 34 this past may.  Is Machida past his prime or has he just made a some mistakes in his last few fights that cost him?  We shall see.  I personally think he is still one of the best LHWs in the division and he tends to be a nightmare match up for wrestlers and brawlers.

Ryan Bader

Going 2-2 in his last 4, Bader is coming in off a win against Rampage Jackson.  This sounds pretty good as Rampage is one of the best LHWs ever, but he also came in with an injury and way over weight for the first time in his career.  It was pretty obviously this win was more about Rampage being out of shape than Bader being the superior fighter so it's hard to take much from it.  Bader is also the only win on Tito's record in the last 6 years (since Tito beat up Ken Shamrock a couple of times back in 06).

I've never been very impressed with Ryan Bader.  He is basically the typical MMA fighter these days, a big strong wrestler who wings right hands.  I'm not saying he is a terrible fighter, I just don't think he is that exceptional (for a top 10 LHW).  All he brings to the table is a double leg takedown (which is useless against southpaw Machida), lay & pray, and a big right hand.  I think he is sort of a poor man's Rashad Evans and we all saw how that fight against Machida turned out.

Final Thoughts

I think Machida (unless he just shows up totally off of his game or gets some fluke injury) is just a nightmare match up for Ryan Bader.  How the fight plays out just depends on if Machida is conservative in this fight or attempts to make a statement.  I think he can put Bader away quickly if he gets in there (like against Rampage in the 3rd round) but he may be content to avoid any risks and fight Bader similar to how he fought Tito. 

A Sad Time to be an MMA Fan.

Jon Jones on fighting Anderson Silva:  "It's not that he won't fight me or I won't fight him. To be dead honest, it's that we both have a lot to lose and we both respect each other a lot and we both are striving for personal greatness. I don't want to crack on his greatness and I don't want him cracking on my greatness.

"We're in completely different weight classes. We both have sponsor deals and things that are really important to us and a big part of that sponsorship package is being a winning-being a champion. Having us fight each other means one of our championships goes away.

"I respect Anderson Silva so much that I don't want to be the guy to beat him. I don't want to lose to him either. It's a lose-lose situation for me."

Source: http://www.bloodyelbow.com/2012/7/10/3150278/ufc-jon-jones-vs-anderson-silva-we-could-both-lose-sponsorships#storyjump

 My comments:

The UFC, where the best duck the best. Basically they are all (GSP, Silva, Jones) trying to build artificial legacies. They all want people to think they are the best and as long as they don't fight each other people will. Real fighters want to challenge themselves, not duck.  Before GSP got injured he would whine about moving up to 185lbs and what a big deal it is.  It's 15lbs!  Guys at HW sometimes fight guys 60lbs bigger than themselves.  Not to mention GSP is 194lbs when he enters the cage at WW. 

For years people have wanted to see GSP vs Silva and Dana never makes the fight.  He says the UFC is where the best fight the best but he is so afraid of losing a cash cow he never does what he claims.  Now people want to see Silva vs Jones and the UFC has no interest in that either.  This is not what martial arts is about, sponsorship deals and artificial legacies.  This stuff makes me sick.  Back in Pride guys moved up and they had top level 205lbs guys fight at HW and it was very exciting.  I suppose the days of real fighters who are looking for a challenge, not hype, is over.  It's a sad time to be an MMA fan when this is how the Champions think.

I suppose in the end I just hate the mindset fighters have these days. They should want to be the best and want to challenge the best. Dana says the UFC is where the best fight the best, great, I just want to see it if that is a true statement.  I can never call someone the GOAT who openly ducks challenges. All of these guys are talented fighters but their attitude on things made me lose respect for them.

UFC 148: Anderson Silva vs Chael Sonnen II

Anderson Silva (31-4) vs Chael Sonnen (27-11)

It's almost here!  This fight has been 2 years in the making and probably ranks #1 for the most smack talk leading up to an MMA fight.  There is bad blood here so we will see how it plays out in the cage.

Chael Sonnen basically earned himself a title fight from smack talk, the thing is, he actually backed it up in the cage.  He dominated Anderson Silva like no one else in the UFC ever has.  He rocked Anderson with punches, took him down repeatedly, and won the first 4 rounds of their fight without question.  The problem is, Chael has a history of being submitted (8 times).  This time he brought in BJJ ace Vinny Magalhaes to help him.  Last time Chael dominated the positions and landed numerous strikes on Silva but after 20 + minutes didn't put him away.  This time I think Chael should try to take Anderson down and submit him.  I think he may try this since it looks like he had been working his submissions in the Brian Stann fight.

Anderson is considered the GOAT at MW and rightfully so.  The good news for him in this fight is that he has superior striking and is pretty good off of his back.  The bad news is Chael is going to try to take him down a lot so I don't know how much his striking will play into it.  Anderson has also been acting different leading up to this fight, I think all of Sonnen's smack talk has gotten to him.  Will this make him fight better or come out sloppy and get taken down?  I guess we will find out here in a few hours.  To win, Anderson needs to keep this fight on the feet by using a sprawl & brawl style.  If he gets taken down he should go for submissions or use the threat of submissions to get a sweep or stand up.

This should be an action packed fight.  The worst case scenario here is that both guys come out not to lose and it ends up being boring (but I am 90% sure that won't happen).